Predicting the Presidency

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by George C. Edwards III

Millions of Americans, including many seasoned politicians, have great expectations for Barack Obama, believing in the power of presidential persuasion. Many supporters of candidate Obama, however, were dissatisfied with what he was able to do while in office. They couldn't understand why he couldn't use his power and political clout to persuade the people and Congress to back his plans. Predicting the Presidency explores why Obama had such a hard time enacting the transformation he promised and defies popular understanding about presidential leadership.

George Edwards demonstrates how we may ask a few basic questions about a presidency's setting, such as the president's strategic position or opportunity structure, and use the answers to forecast a president's success in gaining support for his policies in this insightful book. What role does persuasion play if presidential success is mostly driven by a president's strategic position? Almost every president discovers that a sizable portion of the public and his congressional colleagues are inclined to follow his example. Others may be motivated by self-interest to support the White House. Edwards examines the president's options for leveraging such support, giving a more realistic picture of presidential persuasion's potential.

Predicting the Presidency, written by a distinguished presidential researcher, gives new insight on the constraints and prospects of presidential leadership.

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— George C. Edwards III, Predicting the Presidency