The Coming Population Crash
Demography determines one's fate. Many of the world's problems, from war and economy to immigration, are rooted in it. It's no surprise, however, that worries of overpopulation arose frequently over the previous century, a century in which the world's population quadrupled. Even today, the baby boom generation is blamed for genocide and terrorism, and overcrowding is frequently listed as the major cause of global warming and other environmental problems.
Surprisingly, the explosion seemed to have passed its apex. Women currently have on average 2.6 children worldwide, half the number their mothers had. This is true in both developing and developed nations. Within a generation, world fertility will most certainly fall below replacement levels, and by 2040, the world's population will be in decline for the first time since the Black Death about 700 years ago.
Veteran environmental writer Fred Pearce uncovers the mechanisms behind this significant shift in his book The Coming Population Crash. He begins by detailing the unsettling history of authoritarian efforts to restrict the twentieth century's population growth, as well as the international trend toward women's empowerment, which resulted in lower birthrates. Then he delves into the environmental, social, and economic consequences of our unexpected demographic future, using colorful reporting from throughout the world.
Our globe is likely to have more young people than seniors for the final time in history. Most people believe that the world's ageing population will place a strain on national resources, as a diminishing working population supports an increasing number of pensioners. Is this, however, always the case? Is there a benefit to having a world population that is older? Pearce also explains why greater migration rates are in our demographic future, as well as the hypocrisy at the core of anti-immigrant rhetoric in the developed world: the basic reality is that nations with lower birthrates require workers, while those with higher birthrates require labor. And he takes us from some of the world's most densely packed urban slums to rural Africa to demonstrate that underpopulation may often be the source of environmental problems, while cities may hold the secret to sustainable living.
Pearce's challenging book is required reading for anybody interested in understanding what demographics tell us about our global future, as well as everyone who believes in learning from history's failures.
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